1. Nfl Betting Tips Against The Spread Today
2. Nfl Point Spread Betting Explained

In theory, point spreads are 50/50 propositions. Either Team A will cover the spread, or Team B will (excluding pushes, when the difference in the final score is the exact same number as the point spread.)

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At -110 odds, you only need to win 52.38% of your point spread bets in order to break even, and anything better than that will make you money. So why does it sometimes seem so hard to pick 53% when simply flipping a coin would result in 50% winners?

It’s probably because most bettors think the same way, and the oddsmakers tilt the lines a bit so that it really isn’t a 50-50 proposition after all. After all, if the sportsbooks know that most of the money in this weekend’s games will be bet on popular teams like Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Dallas, why wouldn’t they set the lines to make it a little more difficult for the Packers, Steelers and Cowboys to cover them?

Not that you’ll get rich betting against those public teams, either. Many have tried the ‘fade the public’ approach without success. No, the best way to win consistently against the point spread is by looking to find value in areas where other people don’t.

Here are 5 NFL spread betting tips that can help you do just that.

1. Don’t Overreact to Injuries

One of the biggest mistakes bettors make when picking against the spread is automatically betting against teams that are missing one or more of their star players.

The absence of those star players is already factored into the betting line, so you aren’t getting any additional value by betting against teams missing key starters.

For example, oddsmakers recently put up 2 different betting lines for a Week 3 game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings. If Sam Bradford started at QB for the Vikings, Minnesota was going to be a -1 favorite at home. If Bradford didn’t start, Tampa Bay was a 3-point favorite. That 4-point swing in the point spread was the oddsmakers’ way of compensating for Bradford’s potential presence or absence, meaning bettors weren’t getting any extra value either way.

By the way, Bradford didn’t play, and the Vikings easily covered the spread as home underdogs, pasting Tampa Bay 34-17. Apparently, Minnesota was still capable of beating the Bucs without their #1 quarterback.

That’s another reason not to bet against teams just because they’re missing an important player – those teams often bring more focus to the game and elevate their play because they know they have to. Research the backup who will be filling in for that starter, and you can often grab some extra point spread value by betting on the team who is missing a top player.

2. Look at the Schedule

Trap games. Sandwich games. Lookahead spots. Letdown spots. Whatever you want to call them, an NFL season is ripe with situations in which teams can drastically underperform.

You can often identify these in advance simply by looking at a team’s schedule. Even at the beginning of the season, you can project when certain teams may not be completely focused on this week’s opponent, simply because of who they played last week and/or who they face next.

A classic letdown spot is when a team has a non-conference road game sandwiched between games against divisional opponents. Division games are so important in the NFL, and the rivalries are often so intense, that teams will struggle to manufacture the same intensity for a non-conference game that doesn’t really matter as much. Sure, every game is important in the overall scheme of things, but it’s virtually impossible for teams to “get up” for all 16 games of the season.

Teams who are playing their third consecutive road game are also in a tough situational spot, as are teams who played a road game on Monday Night Football the previous week and have one less day to prepare for their next opponent. Betting against teams who played on Monday Night Football is an even stronger angle if their upcoming opponent is coming off a bye week (or even a Thursday Night Football game from the previous week) since the difference in preparation time is even more significant.

Yet another great letdown spot is when teams are coming off a hard-fought emotional victory, a big upset or a blowout win in which they performed at the top of their game. It’s simple human nature for people to get a little complacent after a strong performance, so they may not be as mentally sharp in practice the following week. And since the public is generally influenced by what happened in last week’s games, you’ll probably catch some extra point spread value as the odds on those teams are adjusted to reflect that strong performance.

3. Respect Home Field Advantage

According to studies, home teams in the NFL win approximately 57% of the time. That’s the second-highest home team winning percentage in the 4 major North American sports (NBA, NFL, Major League Baseball and NHL), behind only the NBA’s 60% home team winning percentage.

In 2016, 3 division champions posted records of .500 or worse away from home, as the Texans went 2-6, the Seahawks were 3-4-1 and the Packers went 4-4. AFC North champion Pittsburgh was just 5-3 on the road, where the Steelers averaged nearly 2 fewer touchdowns per game than when they played at Heinz Field.

If a weak team is going to beat a heavyweight, it’s almost always going to happen at home. The longer that the home underdog can keep things close, the more the crowd gets behind them, and the home team will feed off that even more. Visiting teams also need to deal with overcoming crowd noise when they’re on offense (hurting their ability to call audibles at the line of scrimmage), they may not be familiar with field or weather conditions, the referees may be biased towards the home team, and visiting teams’ preparation for the game is shortened a bit by having to travel.

3 points is what home field advantage is generally considered to be worth on the point spread, but there are certain home fields in the NFL that could be worth more than that. ESPN.com did an interesting analysis of which teams enjoy the best home field advantage in the NFL, and you’ll want to make sure you’re not often betting against the top teams on that list when they’re playing at home.

4. Look at More Than Just the Teams’ Records

It’s a huge mistake to assess a team’s ability and potential purely on its record.

So many things go into winning and losing in the NFL, but the biggest factor may simply be luck. It’s common for a team to get dominated in yardage, yet win the game because it recovered a couple of fumbles at key times or returned a kick for a touchdown. In fact, turnovers (which have a lot to do with luck) often decide who wins the game. Teams that are +1 or better on the turnover ratio win approximately 70% of the time.

A more accurate way of analyzing teams’ strengths and weaknesses is by looking at their yards per play on offense and defense. Luck will even out over time, so a team that consistently gains lots of yards will do better in the long run than a team that struggles to move the chains.

Also be sure to look at how the offenses and defenses of each team match up against each other. For example, if one team excels at running the ball on offense and the other struggles to stop the run on defense, that’s a mismatch you’ll want to exploit.

5. Get the Best Number Possible

Some people think that point spreads don’t really matter that much because the team that wins the game in the NFL often covers the spread in the process. Obviously, if an underdog wins the game, they cover the spread, and favorites usually cover the number if they win the game, especially if the point spread is under a touchdown.

But even if correctly predicting who will win the game will go a long way towards nailing your point spread pick, you still need to pay attention to what the point spread is. More specifically, you need to make sure you’re getting the best possible number on that point spread. Getting a few extra winners or pushes in a season because you got an extra half-point on the spread is often the difference between a winning season and a losing one.

The best way to do that is by having accounts at several different betting sites and then monitoring each sportsbook’s betting lines throughout the week. If the Giants win by 4 points and you were able to find -3.5 instead of settling for the -4 available at the majority of online betting sites, you’ve turned what would have been a push into a win. Do that enough times and you’ll turn a barely profitable 53% season against the spread into a lucrative 56% season.

Those are the 2 most common margins of victory in the NFL, so consistently being able to get -2.5 instead of -3 with favorites or +7.5 instead of +7 on underdogs will always pay off in the long run.

If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you’ve heard of point spreads. Here’s how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you’ll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.

Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.

With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it’s easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it’s NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!

We’ve provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you’d like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner’s guide to betting point spreads.

Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting

Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.

• Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
• Use Multiple Betting Sites
• Be Careful of Road Favorites
• Understand Key Numbers

Let’s go over each of these tips in a little more detail.

Take Advantage of Bonus Offers

One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.

Use Multiple Betting Sites

We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That’s not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn’t take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.

Let’s take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.

Another site might offer a slightly different spread.

If you’re betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you’ll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you’ll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you’ll push and get your stake returned.

On the other hand, if you’re betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.

It’s only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.

Be Careful of Road Favorites

Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.

We’re not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don’t just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.

Understand Key Numbers

While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.

With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it’s very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.

Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.

Now that we’ve got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.

Point Spread Betting in Football

One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.

A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.

Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.

If you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you’ll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.

Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let’s say you’re shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that’s offering +7.5. There’s a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn’t quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you’re specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they’re against the market.

It’s also important to consider whether or not there’s any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there’s an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.

Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we’re here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.

Point Spread Betting in Basketball

Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let’s say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.

A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).

When using this strategy, it’s helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.

This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn’t the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.

Nfl Betting Tips Against The Spread Today

The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It’s important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.

To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let’s assume you’ve purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you’d win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.

Go to our odds converter, and you’ll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.

If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.

Nfl Point Spread Betting Explained

If you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you’re allowed to wager. It’s not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, “Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you’re allowed to bet per game is $500.00.”
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That’s why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you’re so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you’ll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.