.but there's apparently a 29.4% chance that Rand Paul will vote NO on Kavanaugh - yeah, I'd bet everything I own and take out mortgages for additional cash to bet on that NOT happening. Online betting odds suggest Kavanaugh gets votes Credit: Andrew Harnik, Pool Photo Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at Sept. 27, 2018 hearing, Washington, D.C.

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• Bovada recently posted new odds on the next justice to leave the Supreme Court.
• Donald Trump has nominated two justices during his first term – Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch – giving conservatives a majority of the Court.
• Whoever is elected in 2020 will likely have two more vacancies to fill; if Trump is nominated and Ruth Bader Ginsberg retires, Republicans will own the SCOTUS for the next generation.

Recently, Bovada posted some political betting odds dealing with the next justice to leave the Supreme Court. With multiple Justices fast approaching retirement age, it’s highly likely the winner of the 2020 presidential election will decide the fate of the judicial branch for decades to come.

In 2018, Donald Trump replaced retired Justice Anthony Kennedy – once considered the “median justice” — with Brett Kavanaugh, who is considerably more conservative. This moved Chief Justice John Roberts – previously to the right of center — to the median position, pushing the entire “Overton Window” of the Supreme Court further right.

People have long speculated about the next vacancy, with most expecting it to be created by Ruth Bader Ginsberg. In fact, for years, there have been concerns regarding the 87-year-old’s health. Some believe the DNC is shielding Ginsberg – a liberal judge — from the public eye, in hopes of delaying her retirement – at least until the 2020 general election.

Otherwise, Donald Trump is sure to be gifted another appointment of his own choosing. This would give conservatives on the Supreme Court a numerical advantage for decades to come. Clarence Thomas and Stephen Breyer are also getting up there in age and expected to call it quits soon.

Thomas is already conservative, but Trump getting to replace both Ginsberg and Breyer would put Republicans firmly in control of the Court for the next several decades. The President’s last two appointees are both in their 50s, so there’s clearly a plan in place to maximize the value of these vacancies.

That’s why this is such a crucial election year for the Democrats. If their nominee wins, Bader and Breyer can retire without setting liberals back for a generation. Then, if Thomas chooses to step down as well, the Court may return to its pre-Kavanaugh balance.

The Most Likely Retirees

The odds-on favorite to be the next justice to step down is also the oldest. Ruth Bader Ginsberg is 87 years old and has served on the Court for almost 27 years. Along with Justice Sotomayor, she is one of the most liberal voices serving.

With the coronavirus pandemic primarily killing people over 65-years-old – a demographic that includes six of the nine Justices – special safety precautions are being taken. ABC News reported that: “when the court held its regularly scheduled private conference Friday morning, some of the justices participated remotely, and those who were in the building did not engage in the tradition of shaking hands,” according to court spokeswoman Kathy Arberg.

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For over a year now, rumors have swirled about RBG’s health. Many right-wing pundits have publicly questioned whether long-time women’s rights advocate is still fit for the job, or if the Democrats are helping to keep her in place until they can win back the White House.

So far, Ginsberg’s been a trooper, but retirement can’t be delayed much longer. No matter who wins the 2020 election, she’s unlikely to stay in the Supreme Court for another whole term.

Age: 71
Justice Since: October 23, 1991

Bovada listed Clarence Thomas as the second likeliest to retire at +325 odds. Thomas is the most conservative member of the Court. If Donald Trump wins reelection, the controversial Georgia native may feel more comfortable stepping down sooner, knowing he’ll be replaced by a judge with similar political leanings.

Justice Breyer is the second-oldest member of the Supreme Court. Another Clinton appointee, chosen one year after Ruth Bader Ginsberg; Breyer is considered to have a liberal interpretation of the law – though he’s less left-leaning than RBG, Sotomayor, and Kagan.

While I strongly expect Ginsberg to be the next to leave the SCOTUS, Justice Stephen Breyer may present the most betting value. At 81-years-old, and in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic, you can’t beat his +800 moneyline odds.

One unfortunately placed droplet of coronavirus-infected saliva/snot, and that’s a wrap. You’d never want to wish for such a thing, but he’s still a smart bet.

Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh

My Picks

I’m torn between two bets.

Ruth Bader Ginsberg is the smart play – if everything goes according to plan, she’ll be stepping down either after the election in November (if Trump wins) or after the next Presidential inauguration (if a Democrat wins).

At the same time, I love Stephen Breyer at +800!

Despite being the second oldest justice, the San Francisco native is behind both RBG and Clarence Thomas in the betting odds, paying out at 8-to-1! As unpleasant a thought as it might be, you just can’t beat that value – especially not with an airborne coronavirus causing a pandemic throughout the country.

I believe the best play here is to make your decision based on your predictions for the 2020 presidential election.

If you have Trump winning a second term, Ruth Bader Ginsberg is the easy choice – she’ll probably retire in mid-November at that rate. Under those circumstances, I think Breyer will do everything in his power to remain on the Supreme Court until 2025.

Trump losing would push RBG to keep her seat until the new administration enters the White House in January 2021. At that point, it might be a race to see whether Breyer or Ginsberg calls it quits first.

At least we won’t have to wait a week to bet on who will be the next Supreme Court Justice.

Bovada released five betting lines on Friday afternoon that involve Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, following the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee voting to move the confirmation to Senate floor pending a limited, one-week FBI Investigation.

Below are current odds on Kavanaugh-related betting lines as of Friday afternoon.

Will Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice?

• Yes (-180)
• No (+150)

Who will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice?

• Brett Kavanaugh (-180)
• Amy Coney Barrett (+375)
• Field i.e. anyone else (+225)

Will Jeff Flake vote ‘Yea’ to confirm Brett Kavanaugh by October 31, 2018?

• Yes (-300)
• No (+240)

What position will Brett Kavanaugh hold on December 31, 2018?

• Supreme Court Justice (-180)
• S. Circuit Judge (+285)
• Neither (+285)

Will Mark Judge publicly testify by October 31, 2018?

• Yes (+400)
• No (-600)

Lead bookmakers are currently favoring Judge Kavanaugh to be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice and favors Senator Flake voting yes to confirm in addition to Mark Judge, a friend of Judge Kavanaugh, not publicly testifying.

The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee voted 11-10 down party lines on Friday afternoon, September 28, 2018, to advance President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court Justice nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, to a vote on the Senate floor.

However, Senator Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) voted to approve the nominee on the condition to delay the vote going to the Senate floor for one week while the FBI investigates multiple sexual assault allegations against Judge Kavanaugh are true.

Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh Wall Street Journal

President Trump ordered the limited, one-week FBI probe into the sexual assault allegation made against Kavanaugh after the committee meeting concluded.

“I’ve ordered the FBI to conduct a supplemental investigation to update Judge Kavanaugh’s file,” said President Trump in a statement. “As the Senate has requested, this update must be limited in scope and completed in less than one week.”

As requested by the Judiciary Committee, the FBI will investigate “current credible allegations” against Judge Kavanaugh, and Republicans said the FBI will ultimately determine what allegations are to be considered credible.

This comes after Thursday’s confirmation hearing involving testimonies from Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Kavanaugh with Ford alleging he sexually assaulted her at a party when the two were in high school.

During the hearing, Ford claimed she is “100 percent positive” it was Judge Kavanaugh who sexually assaulted her, while Judge Kavanaugh vehemently denied the allegation made by Ford and criticized Democrats for turning his confirmation hearings into a “national disgrace.”

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Regardless, no one is certain how this next week will play out or what the FBI will or won’t find out during its investigation.

Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh Wife

Currently, most prominent bookmakers have all the Kavanaugh-related betting lines closing at midnight eastern time on October 31, 2018.